A quarter of the US workforce will be out of work as a result of the corona crisis. Experts at Goldman Sachs make that prediction. They thereby increased their previous unemployment forecast by 10 percentage points.
Goldman emphasizes that the trough the US economy is going through is deeper than anticipated. At the same time, experts believe that the recovery will be faster in the long term than previously argued.
Goldman changed the outlook after publishing the monthly jobs report last week. This resulted in a record decline, with unemployment at 14.7 percent. If a quarter of Americans were left without a job, that would be equal to the percentage during the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Despite the expected dip in the labor market, Goldman also points to the light at end of the tunnel in sight for the world’s largest economy. For example, activities are gradually resumed and companies reopen. Experts do point out the risks for a second wave of corona infections.
Furthermore, Goldman connoisseurs foresee a major impact on the gross domestic product of the US. There will be a contraction of 39 percent in the second quarter. The quarterly decline is calculated for the shape as if it were a full year. In an earlier estimate, that was still 34 percent. But the rebound in the third quarter later will also be more substantial than previously anticipated.