Due to the corona crisis, many more Americans will vote by post, but it will take some time for these votes to be counted. For example, on election night, Donald Trump may have a huge head start, but will eventually lose the election. According to data analysts, it’s a serious scenario.
Data analysts working for the Democratic Party expect twice as many votes in the post as in previous elections. Instead of 20% of registered voters, they expect 40% to vote by post. And the past has shown that significantly more Democrats vote by Post than Republicans.
It takes a lot more time to count the votes that come in by mail. In some states voters may send their bill on the last day. Data analyst Josh Mendelsohn from Hawkfish expects Trump to do very well on election night, but this gives a distorted picture.
“We are convinced that Donald Trump is in a stronger position than he really is on Election Night,” Mendelsohn says. “We probably see a huge victory for Trump that night, but it’s a mirage.”
The so-called swing states will determine who will win the election. Here the differences between Democrats and Republicans are the smallest. A few hundred votes can make a difference here. For example, the votes cast by post may be decisive.
Mendelsohn calls on voters to put their ballot on the bus early, so that it is counted on Election Night. Former President Obama also made that call during the Democratic convention. He did that for another reason.
In the run-up to the elections, the postal services have become a centre of political jousting between Republicans and Democrats.
The Democrats suspect Republicans and Trump deliberately sabotaging the postal services by removing mailboxes and sorting machines. With a chance that votes won’t be counted in the end.
President Trump has made it clear on several occasions that voting by post is a fraud, even though there is no evidence to support it.
Last month he said that ballots will be lost and that it will be” months “or” years ” before the results are known. At a press conference, he says, “Normally at the end of the evening, they say,” Donald Trump has won the election.””
About the author: Jeff Roper
Jeff Roper has been teaching journalism for more than five years. A theorist who nevertheless took up some practice. He is fond of the history of journalism and journalism.